INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2021
Health Crisis Upends Commercial Real Estate; Uncertainty Will Carry Well Into 2021
Pandemic transforms commercial real estate. COVID-19 changed the world in early 2020 as efforts to curb the spread of the pandemic had a dramatic impact. Stay-at-home orders, the need to physically distance, and having to abide by health and safety protocols had harsh effects on many real estate sectors. Hospitality, seniors housing and brickand-mortar retail were hit hard while others including necessity-based retailers, medical offices, e-commerce retailers, life science and pharmaceutical firms, and many industrial segments thrived. As of February 2021, more than 486,000 Americans have died from the coronavirus and after reaching a peak in mid-January that strained healthcare systems across a wide swath of the U.S., cases, hospitalizations and deaths have begun to taper.
Health crisis exacerbated demographic shifts. Employers laying off workers and sending staff home to work remotely contributed to an acceleration of demographic changes that were already underway. Economic uncertainty led many households to search for lower-cost housing, while the need to work from home and attend school online generated demand for larger spaces. Commute times became less of a factor in housing decisions, pushing residential and apartment demand away from dense urban cores that are more reliant on mass transit to the benefit of suburbs as well as secondary and tertiary markets. Although driving returned during the summer months, public transit usage remains well below the pre-coronavirus level as fewer people are commuting to offices and physical distancing protocols limit ridership. Higher unemployment is also leading to more people spending time at home, which consequently may have boosted new business applications to the highest rate since the Great Recession. This surge in entrepreneurship could have positive results in the years ahead.