NEW TAX ON REAL ESTATE TRANSACTIONS NEGATIVELY IMPACTS SALES

• New tax imposes minimum financial impacts of $200,000 on transfer of property priced over $5 million and $550,000 on property priced above $10 million.

• Cost of taxation could be recaptured through price appreciation — historical data implies average of three or more years, depending on property type.

• Investors may look elsewhere in the Los Angeles metro or to other markets to avoid additional tax burden

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FED HIKES AGAIN, COMPLICATING TRADES

Federal Reserve lifts rates again, adjusts guidance. The Federal Open Market Committee implemented its sixth rate hike of the year on November 2, raising the federal funds rate by a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point margin. In fewer than eight months, the FOMC has taken the target range on the overnight rate from a lower bound of zero to an upper limit of 4.0 percent, the...

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FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS ARE BEING SHUT OUT OF THE MARKET LIKE NEVER BEFORE

If you bought your first home during the past year, consider yourself one of the fortunate few.

Skyrocketing home prices and climbing interest rates pushed the share of first-time homebuyers to an all-time low, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors. And those first-time buyers were the oldest they have ever been, as the growing lack of affordability forced people to wait longer to reach life milestones like buying a home.

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CLIMBING CORE CPI INFLATION POSES IMPLICATIONS

Distinct trends forming among CPI measures. Descending from a June peak of 9.0 percent, the headline Consumer Price Index rose by a year-over-year rate of 8.2 percent in September. Much of this recent downshift has been driven by declining gasoline prices, a trend that could prove temporary. The war in Ukraine, OPEC production cutbacks and a series of domestic maintenance issues are limiting oil supplies, while the ability to pull from the Strategic Oil Reserve may soon close as stockpiles dwindle. At the same time, other consumer costs are climbing faster. Core CPI, which omits the energy category along with food, jumped 6.6 percent over the past 12 months, a 40-year high. The ascending costs for services, including transportation and medical care, drove much of this increase. While the recent downturn in gas prices was undoubtedly helpful to consumers, elevated inflation will continue until core pressures are tamped down

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STRUCTURAL INFLATION DRIVERS PROMPT RATE HIKE

Federal Reserve enacts fifth rate hike of the year. Following accelerated core CPI inflation and ongoing above-average hiring last month, the Federal Reserve raised the overnight lending rate 75 basis points at its September meeting. This is the third consecutive rate hike of this magnitude, extending the target range of the federal funds rate above ...

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ResearchCasey SandersResearch
RISING CORE INFLATION KEEPS FED ALERT; FOOD, FUEL COSTS HOLD CRE IMPLICATIONS

Headline and core inflation trend in opposite directions. In August, the headline Consumer Price Index recorded a year-over-year increase of 8.3 percent, slightly below the 8.5 percent rise recorded the month prior. The core CPI measure, excluding food and energy, advanced at a faster pace, however, ascending 6.3 percent year-overyear in August compared to 5.9 percent in July. This dichotomy is due to the influence of a sharp drop in gasoline prices on the headline measure. The greater expenses associated with food, housing, medical care and other necessities underscores the persistence of the current inflation pressures stemming from the ongoing global logistics challenges and broad-based shortage of labor.

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ResearchCasey SandersResearch
MULTIPLE REAL ESTATE SECTORS POISED TO BENEFIT

Inflation trend may be turning corner. The headline Consumer Price Index in July was up 8.5 percent compared to a year prior, a deceleration from the 9.1 percent year-over-year jump recorded in June. This slowdown was driven predominantly by a month-over month decline in energy prices, led by a 7.7 percent drop in the gas price component of the index.

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