NORMALIZING RENT GROWTH POINTS TO FUTURE COOLING IN CORE INFLATION

“Supercore” CPI at favorable level. The headline consumer price index increased by 3.2 percent year-over-year in July, trending up slightly from June's 3.0 percent reading. Accelerated cost increases for food and some forms of energy ticked up the headline statistic for the first time since June 2022. While this could signal a bumpier inflation path ahead, market expectations for a continued CPI slowdown are anchored by a cooling job market and easing price pressures for most goods and services. Core CPI, which omits food and energy costs, slowed to 4.7 percent year-overyear in June, its lowest rate since October 2021. Further removing shelter from the measure, “supercore” CPI only lifted by 2.5 percent year-overyear. The housing component of inflation tends to be a lagging indicator that is expected to materially subside, reducing inflationary pressure.

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HIRING DOWNSHIFT PAVES WAY FOR INTEREST RATE STABILITY

Job growth returns to more familiar, positive territory. Employers added 187,000 new positions in July, the second-slowest month for employment growth since December 2020, when staff counts retracted. July’s hiring was nevertheless still 61,000 roles ahead of the monthly average going back to 1980. The drawback in job creation was not unexpected, as the 9.6 million open positions in June was the lowest in two years. Together, these statistics reflect a downshift in the demand for personnel; although, the labor market is still tight in a broad sense. This slowdown to a more typical level of job creation is far from a concern, however, posing positive implications for both the economy at large and commercial real estate in particular. ...

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GDP REAFFIRMS RESILIENCE IN THE ECONOMY, BOOSTS PROSPECTS OF A SOFT LANDING

U.S. economic growth accelerates. Real gross domestic product increased at an annualized rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of this year, outpacing consensus expectations for 1.5 percent growth. It also marked an acceleration from the 2.0 percent advance during the first three months of 2023. Gains in consumer spending, non-residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, as well as state, local and federal government spending, contributed to this momentum. The U.S. economy has now expanded at a 2-plus percent pace in each of the past four quarters, following a mild reduction in early 2022.

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FED RESUMES RATE INCREASES

Hiatus short-lived as Fed re-commences rate hikes. On July 26, the Federal Open Market Committee announced the first fed funds rate increase in nearly three months, raising the metric by 25 basis points to a lower bound of 5.25 percent. This follows a pause in June during which the target rate remained ...

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CORE INFLATION COOLING BUT STILL HIGH

Inflation continuing to trend down. The headline consumer price index climbed by 3.0 percent year-over-year in June, the smallest increase since March 2021. A 16.7 percent decline in energy costs helped slow the overall inflation rate to a third of its June 2022 peak. However, prices for other categories of consumer goods and services, such as housing and medical care, continue to ascend. Core CPI inflation, which omits more volatile food and energy costs, rose by 4.8 percent year-over-year in June.....

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STURDY LABOR MARKET SUSTAINS POSITIVE MOMENTUM

Employment growth strong, but down from recent periods. Monthly hiring dropped below the 300,000 mark for the fourth time this year with the creation of 209,000 jobs in June. While the softest period for employment growth since December 2020, June’s total is still well above the past 30-year average of 126,000. Staff additions were led by ...

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BETWEEN A ROCK AND A CPACE: FINANCING ALTERNATIVE

The 10-Year Treasury sits in the upper-3 percent range, with one-month Term SOFR in the low-5 percent zone. The cheapest interest rates for new origination are almost 6 percent, with max leverage agency debt constantly pricing north of that for non-mission executions. CMBS debt for riskier property types, such as office and hospitality, is often in the 7.0 percent to 8.0 percent band or more. ...

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INFLATION HALVES PEAK RATE

Inflation descending at a more subdued pace. Annual growth in the headline consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 4.9 percent in April, marking the 10th month in a row that this metric has decelerated since the Federal Reserve began tightening policy in the current cycle. Increases in the cost of borrowing have chipped away at household ...

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FED TAKES A RATE HIKE HIATUS

Federal Reserve pauses in June to assess data. The Federal Open Market Committee held their policy rate flat at a lower bound of 5 percent at the June meeting. This is the first time the FOMC has not raised the federal funds rate at a meeting since before March 2022. The pause does not, however, imply an end to the current tightening cycle. The Federal ...

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MAY HIRING REFLECTS FAVORABLE OUTLOOKS

Hiring reaches four-month high. Employers across the country created 339,000 new jobs last month, the most since January. Hiring occurred across industries, as only the manufacturing and information sectors reported net staff contractions. The number of self-employed individuals also declined notably in ...

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HOME PRICES SOFTENED NATIONALLY

Valuations are below 2022 highs, but creeping back up. The median sale price of an existing single-family house was down 2.1 percent year-over-year in April 2023, the largest decrease on an annual basis going back to 2012. At the same time, the starting point of that reference period was historically elevated, making the decline over the past year more of a ...

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