Rising unemployment releases pressure on inflation. Employment growth accelerated in February with 275,000 jobs created, yet the unemployment rate also rose by 20 basis points to 3.9 percent. While the highest rate of unemployment in 25 months may be interpreted as a negative signal, in this case some labor market softening could ...
Read MoreWindow of stronger buyer demand lifted home prices. The median sale price of an existing single-family home surged to a record high of $405,600 in January 2024, after holding under $400,000 for the majority of the past two years. That month-over-month growth was the largest since May 2022, a price escalation that was primarily a result of ...
Read MoreInflation metrics present mixed bag. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 3.1 percent over the year ended January, down 30 basis points from the December reading. Falling energy prices and flattening costs for food helped slow inflation, as supply chains remained fluid despite ongoing global conflict. However, when stripping these indices out ...
Read MoreThe year kicks off with strong job growth. Total employment rose by 353,000 in January, the largest increase since the same month in 2023, and similar to the 333,000 roles added in December. Unemployment held steady at 3.7 percent for the third month in a row despite this increase. Job gains predominantly occurred in professional and business ...
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Read MoreMarkets predict Fed cut in March, even with bump in CPI. Headline inflation ticked up to 3.4 percent over the year ended December 2023, as both energy and shelter costs accelerated during the month. While this higher reading appears to complicate the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy in 2024, market probabilities for a rate cut in March ...
Read MoreDecember job additions fall short of the monthly average. Employers closed out the year by adding 216,000 positions in the final month, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent. Although this was up from the prior two months, it sustains the trend of slowing addition, with December falling below the 2023 monthly average. This presents a sign ...
Read MoreNon-cyclical and strike-impacted sectors log modest job creation. Last month welcomed 199,000 new positions as the labor market continued to exhibit resilience. Still, November’s headline number fell a fair bit below the trailing 12-month average of 240,000 roles as hiring velocity slows. While the overall growth eased back, hiring was still aggressive in non-cyclical sectors like health care and government, as well as in industries affected by recent labor disruptions, like manufacturing. Health care led in hiring last month with an above-average 77,000 added jobs. The 30,000 new positions in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing largely reflected the return of workers from strikes....
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Read MoreUnemployment inches up in October amid modest job creation. The tight labor market loosened slightly in October as 150,000 positions were created, the second-slowest month for hiring since the end of 2020. Additions were greatest in the health care and public sectors, with the onboarding of 58,000 and 51,000 personnel on net, respectively ...
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Read MoreRising shelter prices keep core inflation high. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed above 7.5 percent in October, marking a 23-year peak. Previous Federal Reserve actions have increased interest rates, which — in conjunction with higher home prices — have resulted in more expensive housing costs. The shelter index lifted ...
Read MoreStaffing additions hit eight-month high, holding unemployment flat. Employers across the country created 336,000 new jobs in September, above the year-to-date monthly average of 260,000, and the strongest month for hiring since January. Employment growth occurred across a broad range of industries, led by the onboarding of 96,000 personnel in the leisure and hospitality sector, as well as 73,000 in government roles, including public education. Hiring was also prevalent in professional and business services, as well as in health care. Strong job creation held the national unemployment rate flat at 3.8 percent, sustaining a tight sub-4 percent for the 20th consecutive month...
Read MoreFed opts for a rate hike hiatus. On September 20, the Federal Open Market Committee announced there would be no change in the federal funds rate, while the institution would continue to reduce securities holdings. This will maintain the current lower bound of 5.25 percent first set in July, and mark the second meeting in 2023 during which the Fed chose to forgo a rate increase. Labor market dynamics played a major role in the FOMC’s decision-making. Although labor demand still exceeds supply, job openings have declined as recruitment has tapered. Chairman Powell also reiterated the Fed’s open-ended, data-dependent stance at the meeting. This contrasts the language used during June’s pause, which explicitly referred to that decision as a skip, foreshadowing the increase in July..
Read MoreHurricane Idalia was the latest in a recent string of disasters that inflicted more than $1 billion in property damages. Beyond the impact to real estate, Idalia and other weather events have caused owners’ insurance to rise drastically in several states, which will have implications for demographics and investment. The growing incidence of natural disasters may, over time, motivate investors to place more emphasis on geographic diversification to manage this long-term risk.…
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Read MoreLabor market dynamics becoming more familiar. Job growth in August tallied 187,000 positions, one of the slowest months for hiring in the pandemic recovery period. Headcounts declined in the information and transportation sectors, heavily influenced by Hollywood strikes and the bankruptcy of trucking company ...
Read MoreThe accelerated cost of insurance is impacting the commercial real estate sector on multiple fronts. Heightened premiums are raising overall apartment expenses for owners, making it more difficult for developers to underwrite projects. Cost spikes are also altering property valuations, impacting deal flow in states with higher environmental risk factors.
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